Data from the adult coeliac disease survey were used to derive estimates of the transitions from the non-diagnosed symptomatic states (B and C) on a yearly basis [6], which we explain in detail in section 3 of Additional file 1. For the transitions from the symptom-free state, we used the coeliac disease register and calculated the expected number of cases and fit this to our model [34, 35]. We assumed that ~ 50% of all cases would be diagnosed after 15 years in the no-screening alternative, which is consistent with the data in the coeliac disease register and previous publications [3, 20, 21]. For further details about this, see section 4 in Additional file 1.
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