Predictive Ability of MOI and FWS to Discriminate Between Imported and Local Cases

Logistic regression was used to assess whether the addition of MOI and mean F_WS to epidemiologically parameterized models would predict whether a case was imported or locally acquired. The base epidemiological model included the following predictors: district of residence, season, case detection method (passive vs reactive surveillance), age, sex, and occupation. Model improvement was tested using the log-likelihood Χ² statistic and discriminative ability was assessed by the change in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.