Research hypothesis

We used AEM to estimate the numbers of new HIV infections, current HIV infections, and HIV-related deaths among MSM in Chaoyang. The estimated results were identified because of the combined intervention of AIDS in Chaoyang in this study.

We divided MSM into different scenarios based on the intervention measures: with comprehensive intervention, without condom use, without ART, and without a combination of both condom use and ART. We analysed the differences between new HIV infections, current HIV infections, and HIV-related deaths.

Determining the effect of comprehensive interventions: we assumed that the estimated numbers of new HIV infections, current HIV infections, and HIV-related deaths among MSM in 2003–2013 based on the AEM were the effect of comprehensive interventions.

Determining the effect of interventions other than condom use: we assumed that the rate of condom use per year remained at the level of 2003 (the rate of condom use per year between MSM and MSM was 42.00%; between MSM and MSW, the rate was 55.00%). Holding other factors unchanged, we calculated the numbers of new HIV infections, current HIV infections, and HIV-related deaths among MSM from 2003 to 2013, which we considered to be the effect of other interventions apart from condom use.

Determining the effect of interventions other than ART: we assumed that ART coverage and the CD4 threshold for treatment eligibility among PLWHA of MSM remained the same as the 2003 level (ART coverage was 5.06%; CD4 cell count ≤200 cells/μl). Holding other factors unchanged, we calculated the numbers of new HIV infections, current infections, and HIV-related deaths among MSM in 2003–2013, which we considered to be the effect of other interventions apart from ART.

Determining the effect of interventions other than combined condom use and ART: we assumed that ART coverage, the CD4 threshold for treatment eligibility among PLWHA of MSM, and the rate of condom use remained at the same level as 2003 (ART coverage was 5.06%; CD4 cell count ≤200 cells/μl; the rate of condom use between MSM and MSM was 42.00%; the rate of condom use between MSM and MSW was 55.00%). With other factors held unchanged, we calculated the numbers of new HIV infections, current HIV infections and HIV-related deaths among MSM in 2003–2013, which we considered to be the effect of other interventions apart from a combination of condom use and ART.