2.4. Early interventions

To investigate the effects of early interventions, we varied τ and fixed the estimated values of associated parameters with β(t) and α(t) as the baseline values in Table 1. The total number of confirmed cases and the duration of the outbreak were investigated by varying τ from 1 to 18. The outbreak duration was measured during times until the daily number of new confirmed cases was decreasing and sufficiently small. The proportionate reductions of the outbreak duration and size were calculated by using the baseline results at τ=18. We assumed that the control measures for β(t) and α(t) were effectively carried out to prevent transmission of the virus. For example, the list of hospitals that were exposed to MERS patients was announced to the public on June 7. After that, people changed their behaviors such as avoiding visiting hospitals, wearing an N95 mask, and using hand sanitizers. At that time, the health authorities expanded the screening capacity for rapid diagnosis. These control measures could help detect suspected cases during their infectious period or even before the onset of symptoms. Such interventions could prevent the occurrence of SSEs because the potential superspreaders were immediately isolated after being confirmed with MERS infection.