Projecting Impacts.

Each impact projection is calculated at the pixel level before aggregating to counties; e.g., we create projections of changes in mortality rate for each pixel. This is done to minimize distortions that may occur upon geographical aggregation and to preserve the within-county temperature variation.

We then aggregate changes in mortality rate, GDP per capita, and corn yield to the county level by, for each county, area-averaging all pixels that overlap with the given county, weighted by the area overlapping between each pixel and the county. CONUS-wide estimates of changes in mortality, GDP per capita, and corn yields are then calculated by aggregating results across all counties, weighting by county-level population (for mortality and GDP per capita) or corn yields.

A single estimate for the change in an impact variable is calculated for each run in each model for the entire CONUS by aggregating county-level results.