2.2. Genomic prediction models

PK Peter Skov Kristensen
PS Pernille Sarup
DF Dario Fé
JO Jihad Orabi
PS Per Snell
LR Linda Ripa
MM Marius Mohlfeld
TC Thinh Tuan Chu
JH Joakim Herrström
AJ Ahmed Jahoor
JJ Just Jensen
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Three genomic prediction models were evaluated. Model 1 (M1) was based on the GCA-model developed by González-Diéguez et al. (2021). Here, it is assumed that each hybrid was produced from completely inbred parental lines. The maternal lines belonged to heterotic group 1, and the paternal lines belonged to heterotic group 2. Genotypes of the two-way crosses were imputed from the genotypes of the MS and NR lines, and these genotypes were used in the calculation of genomic relationship matrices. If a SNP marker was heterozygous in a parental line (alleles B1b1 in group 1 or B2b2 in group 2), it was randomly assigned to one of the two homozygous genotypes (B1B1 /b1b1 or B2B2/b2b2 , respectively).

In model 2 (M2) and model 3 (M3), the genotypes of the MS and NR lines were used directly in the calculations in order to better utilize the genomic relationship between the lines within group 1. In M2, the R lines and the two-way crosses could have arbitrary levels of inbreeding, while the MS and NR lines were assumed completely inbred. Any heterozygous SNPs in the MS and NR lines were randomly assigned to one of the two homozygous genotypes. In M3, the R lines, the two-way crosses, and the MS and NR lines could all have arbitrary levels of inbreeding. If all parental components are completely inbred, then M2 and M3 are equivalent to M1.

Thus, the M1 model was:

where y is the vector of phenotypes of the hybrids; X is the design matrix for fixed effects (year x location x trial. For rye, treatment was included as a second fixed effect); b is the vector of fixed effects; T 1 and T 2 are design matrices to assign hybrids to their parental lines in heterotic group 1 and 2, ɡA(1) and ɡA(2) are vectors of additive genetic effects from parental lines from group 1 and 2, respectively, with ɡA(1)N(0,GA(1)σA(1)2) and ɡA(2)N(0,GA(2)σA(2)2) , where σA(1)2 and σA(2)2 are additive genetic variances and GA(1) and GA(2) are additive genomic relationship matrices; ɡAA(1) and ɡAA(2) are vectors of additive-by-additive epistatic effects within heterotic group 1 and 2, respectively, with ɡAA(1)N(0,GAA(1)σAA(1)2) and GAA(2)N(0,GAA(2)σAA(2)2) , where σAA(1)2 and σAA(2)2 are epistatic genetic variances within each heterotic group and GAA(1) and GAA(2) are within-group epistatic genomic relationship matrices; T 3 is the design matrix for the effects of the hybrids; ɡAA(3) is the vector of additive-by-additive epistatic effects between alleles from heterotic group 1 and 2, respectively, with ɡAA(3)N(0,GAA(3)σAA(3)2) , where σAA(3)2 is epistatic genetic variance between the heterotic groups and GAA(3) is the across-group epistatic genomic relationship matrix; g D is the vector of genetic dominance deviations due to within locus interactions between alleles from different heterotic groups with ɡD N(0,DσD2) , where σD2 is genetic dominance variance and D is the dominance relationship matrix across hybrids; r (1) , r (2) and r ( 3 ) are vectors of residual genetic effects of lines from group 1 and 2 and of the hybrids, respectively, with r(1) N(0,Ir(1)σr(1)2) , r(2) N(0,Ir(2)σr(2)2) and r(3) N(0,Ir(3)σr(3)2) , where Ir(1) , Ir(2) , and Ir(3) are identity matrices and σr(1)2 , σr(2)2 and σr(3)2  are residual genetic variances; T4 , T5 , and T6 are design matrices for random effects of interactions between year x location and maternal parent, paternal parent or treatment (only included for rye), respectively, and k , l , and m are the vectors of the random effects of the interactions with k  N(0,Ikσk2) , l  N(0,Ilσl2) , and m  N(0,Imσm2) , where Ik , Il , and Im are identity matrices and σk2 , σl2 , and σm2 , are variances for the interactions; e is the vector of random residual effects with e  N(0,Ieσe2) , where Ie is an identity matrix and σe2 is residual variance.

For M1, genomic relationship matrices were calculated as proposed by González-Diéguez et al. (2021):

Additive genomic relationship matrix for heterotic group 1:

where p1i and q1i are the frequencies of allele B1i and b1i for the ith marker, respectively, and Z 1 = M 1 - P 1; M 1 is a matrix with genotypes of parental lines in group 1 coded as 0 for genotype b1b1 and 1 for genotype B1B1 for each marker; P 1 is a matrix where each column contains the allele frequencies of B1 , and nsnp is number of markers.

Additive-by-additive epistatic relationship matrix for lines within group 1 was calculated as the Hadamard product of the additive genomic relationship matrix for group 1 scaled by the trace of the resulting matrix divided by the number of lines in group 1 to get an average diagonal of 1:

The additive and epistatic genomic relationship matrices for heterotic group 2 were calculated in same way as for group 1.

Additive-by-additive epistatic relationship matrix between lines in group 1 and 2:

where nH is the number of hybrids. The matrices GAA(3) and D can both include realized hybrids as well as all potential crosses of the parental lines, so the crosses with the largest effects can be predicted even though they are not yet phenotypically tested.

Dominance relationship matrix of dominance interactions between alleles from different heterotic groups:

where p1i , q1i , p2i and q2i are the frequencies of the alleles B1i and b1i in heterotic group 1 and B2i and b2i in heterotic group 2 for the ith marker, respectively, and W1 is a matrix with a row for each hybrid and a column for each marker (González-Diéguez et al., 2021). The elements of W1 are shown in Table 2 .

Elements of W1, W2, and W3 for each marker in the hybrids from crosses between parental lines from group 1 and group 2, which are used in the calculation of the dominance relationship matrix for M1, M2, and M3, respectively*.

*The elements in w1 are from González-Diéguez et al. (2021), and remaining elements were derived in this study ( Appendix 1 ).

It should be noted that the mean heterosis of the hybrids is not estimated separately in the model but is included in the overall mean of the hybrid phenotypes. Thus, the across-group epistatic and dominance effects that are estimated are deviations of individual hybrids from the mean heterosis.

In M2, paternal R lines and maternal two-way crosses could have arbitrary levels of inbreeding, while MS and NR lines were assumed completely inbred. Genotypes of MS and NR were used for the calculation of additive and epistatic genomic relationship matrices for heterotic group 1. If an MS and NR lines had the same genotypes for all SNPs, it was only included once in the relationship matrices.

Thus, the M2 model was:

where y is the vector of phenotypes of the three-way hybrids; T 7 and T 8 are design matrices for MS and NR, respectively; ɡA(1,1) , ɡAA(1,1) , and rA(1,1) are vectors of additive, epistatic, and residual genetic effects for both MS and NR, respectively, with ɡA(1,1) N(0,12GA(1,1)σA(1,1)2) , ɡAA(1,1)N(0,GAA(1,1)σAA(1,1)2) , and r(1,1) N(0,Ir(1,1)σr(1,1)2) , where σA(1,1)2 , σAA(1,1)2 and σr(1,1)2  are additive, within-group epistatic and residual genetic variances for MS and NR, and GA(1,1) and GAA(1,1) are additive and epistatic genomic relationship matrices, and Ir(1,1) is an identity matrix. GA(1,1) was scaled by ½ to account for the first cross between MS and NR, which produced the two-way cross. Additionally, M 2 , which was used in the calculation of the additive genomic relationship matrix for group 2 ( GA(2) ) now included heterozygous genotypes B2b2 coded as 0.5. The marker matrix for the dominance relationship matrix, W 2 , was extended to account for heterozygous genotypes in the two-way crosses and in the R lines, which now have twelve possible crossing combinations instead of four in M1 ( Table 2 ). The additive-by-additive epistatic relationship matrix between lines in group 1 and 2 was calculated as:

In M3, the same model parameters were used as for M2 (Equation 6), but now every parental line (MS, NR, two-way crosses, and R) could have arbitrary levels of inbreeding. Therefore, M 1, which was used in the calculation of the additive genomic relationship matrix for MS and NR ( GA(1,1) ) included heterozygous genotypes B1b1 coded as 0.5. The marker matrix for the dominance relationship matrix, W 3 , was further extended to account for heterozygous genotypes in all parental lines, which now have 27 possible crossing combinations ( Table 2 ).

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