Model evaluation

MS M. C. Schut
DD D. A. Dongelmans
DL D. W. de Lange
SB S. Brinkman
NK N. F. de Keizer
AA A. Abu-Hanna
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We used bootstrapping to evaluate the predictive performance of both trees on discrimination using the Area under the Receiver-Operating-Characteristic curve, (AUROC) curve, and on prediction accuracy by means of the Brier score (i.e., the mean squared error of the prediction). We also inspected calibration with calibration curves. Internal model validation of the AUROC and Brier measures was based on 200 bootstrap samples and 95% confidence intervals were computed from the resampling distribution with percentile intervals. Calibration curves were based on 10-fold cross validation.

We did post hoc validation analyses in which we tested both trees on a dataset including patients up to January 1st, 2023.

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