2.2. Calculation of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0)

TM Thi Ngan Mai
SS Satoshi Sekiguchi
TH Thi My Le Huynh
TC Thi Bich Phuong Cao
VL Van Phan Le
VD Van Hieu Dong
VV Viet Anh Vu
AW Anuwat Wiratsudakul
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R0 is used to express an average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual in a fully susceptible population during its entire infectious period [18]. The disease will disappear from the population if R0 < 1 and keep spreading otherwise [27]. The simplicity of the generation time distribution was indicated in a previous study [28]. From the daily case data, we set up the best-fitting generation time (GT) distribution for a series of serial interval (SI) distribution by the “est.GT” function in the package “R0” in program R version 3.4.3 (R development team, Vienna, Austria). In this study, the generation time is the time lag between infection in primary and secondary cases by clinical signs. In addition to GT distribution, all farms’ mean and standard deviation were also calculated. We then estimated R0 for ASF transmission within pig herds based on our empirical data using three methods, including the exponential growth method (EG), maximum likelihood method (ML), and attack rate method (AR) by the “est.R0.EG”, “est.R0.ML” and “est.R0.AR” functions in the “R0” package of the R program.

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