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Relative sea-level rise (RSLR)

AH A. Hooijer
RV R. Vernimmen
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We have estimated the land areas flooded and populations affected in future with a relative sea-level rise (RSLR) of 1 meter by 2100, which results in more or less equal parts from absolute SLR and land surface subsidence (LSS).

The range of SLR following from the IPCC RCP2.6/RCP8.5 projections by 2100 is 0.29–0.59/0.61–1.1 since 1986–2005 (ref. 1), from which we applied a middle value of 0.5 m rise since 2020.

The range of LSS rates as shown in Supplementary Table 1, of 2.5 to 10 mm yr−1 in rural areas, also justify a middle value of 0.5 m between 2020 and 2100. Subsidence causes mentioned in sources are deforestation, drainage, groundwater abstraction and exploitation of oil and gas. Higher values are reported for urban areas, often well in excess of 20 mm yr−1, but not applied in this assessment to maintain global uniformity in parameters.

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