2.2.1. Short-Term Forecast (STF) Model

The short-term forecast (STF) model is based on a simple linear forecast model (built-in function “forecast.linear” in Microsoft Excel, Microsoft office 365, Figure 5)

where Y is the predicted percentage of positive qPCR test(s) on day(s) X. The learning data are the time range (x) and corresponding observed (i.e., reported) positive qPCR tests (y). The range of x and y spans over the previous days (between 5 and 40 days); i.e., the dataset (x,y) is the learning data for the linear prediction of Y on day X. The Microsoft Excel forecast.linear(X,x,y) function predicts a value based on existing values along a linear trend.

A scheme showing the short-term forecast (STF) model.