EU-ETS future price projections

SM Stefano Mingolla
PG Paolo Gabrielli
AM Alessandro Manzotti
MR Matthew J. Robson
KR Kevin Rouwenhorst
FC Francesco Ciucci
GS Giovanni Sansavini
MK Magdalena M. Klemun
ZL Zhongming Lu
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The EU-ETS is a carbon control scheme that issues carbon allowances and ultimately puts a cost on carbon dioxide emissions. EU-ETS allowances are allocated at the member state level, but overall allowances will be reduced as Europe pushes towards net-zero89. The impact of EU-ETS on electrolytic hydrogen costs is studied in the robustness analysis. EU-ETS future price projections are based on BloombergNEF report90 (Supplementary Fig. 14). In the robustness analysis, the pessimistic scenario assumes a high EU-ETS price of 145 EUR/t CO2e, the reference case uses a moderate price of 86 EUR/t CO2e, and the optimistic case is based on a low price of 27 EUR/t CO2e.

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