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Test of robustness

SZ Shijie Zhou
PH Ping Huang
LW Lin Wang
KH Kaiming Hu
GH Gang Huang
PH Peng Hu
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A change is considered robust if it meets two criteria: the ratio of multi-model mean to inter-model standard deviation of the change is >1 and at least 66% of the models show a change greater than the internal-variability threshold γ. This test of robustness considers both the uncertainty across the models and internal variability, which is similar to the approach used in the IPCC AR6 WG1 report64. The ratio test is stricter than the sign agreement test often used in previous studies to evaluate the inter-model robustness. The internal-variability threshold is defined as γ=2⋅1.645⋅σ30yr, where σ30yr is the standard deviation of 30-year climatology of thirteen periods separated from 500-year simulation in the piControl in which the first 100 years are ignored64.

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