The relative mean absolute error (rmae) is a widely used measure of model accuracy70. The relative mean absolute error for the forecasts at a location j at time t is defined as:

That is the mean absolute error at time t is averaged across all simulated incidence trajectories and normalised by the observed incidence. We add 1 to the observed value to prevent division by 0. A rmae value of k means that the average error is k times the observed value.

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