Sharpness is a measure of the spread (or uncertainty) of the forecasts. Adapting the definition proposed by Funk et al.71, we used the relative mean deviation about the median to evaluate sharpness. The sharpness sjt of forecasts at time t at location j is

We add 1 to I^jt to prevent division by 0. A sharpness score of k indicates that the average deviation of the predicted incidence trajectories is k times their median. Low values of sharpness therefore suggest that the predicted trajectories are clustered around the median.

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