The difference between the ARIMA prediction and actual number of patients diagnosed with UGIB was compared with a two-sided Student’s t -test. The upper and lower limit of the 95 % confidence interval was used to define the worst- and best-case scenarios in the ARIMA prediction, respectively. Other clinical parameters were compared with a Student’s t -test when appropriate. Pearson correlation was used to assess the relationship between new COVID cases and UGIB cases with hospitalization. P  < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

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