Time trend analysis of newly diagnosed upper gastrointestinal tract bleeding during COVID-19

The week that COVID-19 started was defined as the week when the first local case of COVID-19 was diagnosed in Hong Kong, which was January 23, 2020. The end date of this study was June 30, 2020. Time trend analysis was performed on the hospitalization rates for UGIB during this period as compared with preceding months up to October 1, 2018. Because of daily and seasonal variations in UGIB, the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was constructed to predict the number of patients with UGIB, causes of UGIB, as well as other clinical outcomes on a weekly basis. The corrected Akaike’s information criterion (AICc) was used to choose the ARIMA models with different combinations of parameters. The model parameter used were a seasonal ARIMA( p , d , q )( P , D , Q ) s whereas p,d,q referred to the autoregressive, difference, and moving average term of the ARIMA model and P,D,Q was the corresponding part in the seasonal part and s the seasonal period. The data were first used to fit the model with adjustment for the holiday effect of Christmas and Lunar new year. The mean percentage error (MPE) was used to test the accuracy of the forecast. Sensitivity analysis was performed with Petitt’s test to look for a turning point in the trend of UGIB during the whole COVID-19 study period.

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