Each vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) was evaluated using a set of quantitative indicators at the country level. Exposure was projected to the end of the century (2090–2099) using two emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), which provided insights into exposure levels in the case of highly successful reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6) and a continued business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). We also accounted for future development trends by incorporating gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (an indicator of adaptive capacity) projected for 2090–2100 under a “middle of the road” scenario in which social, economic, and technological trends do not shift markedly from historical patterns Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 (SSP2). Projections were unfortunately not available for other indicators. Hence, we used multiple present-day indicators to capture important aspects of the sensitivity dimension. This works under the assumption that no major turnover would occur in the rankings (e.g., most dependent countries at present remain the most dependent in 2100), which is reasonable considering historical trends (fig. S10). Table S1 summarizes sources and coverage of data for each indicator. In the sections below, we describe each dimension and their underlying indicators but do not elaborate methods as they are fully described in each data source.

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