Our baseline scenario reflects the business as usual framework of governance in Brazil in terms of deforestation. In this scenario, we assumed that the control of illegal deforestation as stipulated in the Brazil’s FC was enforced only in the Amazon and the Atlantic Forest biomes and that the conversion of native vegetation (legal or illegal) was allowed at all times in the Cerrado (see the “Validation” section for a comparison of deforestation and native vegetation loss between the model projections and the official estimates). The baseline scenario also considers full compliance with the SoyM in the Amazon biome from 2006 onward but no compliance with the SoyM in the Cerrado. The baseline is the scenario that better reproduces the observed deforestation and loss of native vegetation rates in the Amazon (10) and the Cerrado between 2003 and 2017 (fig. S3). Building on the baseline, the SoyM scenario includes the SoyM with full compliance in the Cerrado biome after 2020. The SoyM was implemented as a full ban on the conversion from forests or native vegetation to soy. Two different starting dates for implementing the SoyM in the Cerrado were assumed in the SoyM scenario: 2015 (SoyM-15) and 2025 (SoyM-25). We also considered the FC or FC scenario (10), which includes illegal deforestation control in all Brazil’s biomes, obligatory forest restoration, compensation by the CRA, and the SoyM in the Amazon biome after 2006 but without its expansion to the Cerrado (see Table 1 for a scenario overview). The FC identifies the LR or the minimum percentage of forests or native vegetation that must be preserved within private properties. The LR varies from 80% in the Amazon biome to 20% in the Atlantic Forest, and it also defines areas of permanent preservation (APP) such as riversides and hilltops. In this study, environmental debts of LRs and APPs were based on the Rural Environmental Cadastre (CAR, Portuguese acronym) from December 2016 (32) aggregated to 50 km by 50 km. LR surpluses is estimated per pixel (50 km by 50 km) as the amount of native vegetation that exceeds the LR requirements (10). Under the FC scenario, the CRA system compensates LR debts per pixel by trading the deficits with the surpluses within a biome and starting with the larger amounts (10).

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