Species turnover is a measure of the difference in species composition between two ecological communities. We assessed species turnover through time, analyzing the fraction of species whose identities changed between months (“species replacement”). We derived species communities at monthly 1° resolution from the species’ monthly ensemble mean projections (for each monthly 1° cell, species with values larger than 0.5 counted as present). We calculated species turnover at 1° resolution between consecutive months (n = 12 monthly pairs) and averaged the results of the monthly pairs over the full year to obtain the species turnover map (Fig. 1B). We used the turnover component of the Jaccard dissimilarity as implemented in R’s betapart package.

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