The pandemic can spread within households, neighborhoods, schools, and workplaces according to the transmission probabilities set out in our previous work (31). During each 24-hour period, a daytime phase occurs during which infected individuals can spread the infection to others in their working groups comprising approximately 10 others working in the same “destination zone” [these groups include classes, grades, and schools for teachers and students, which have more than 10 people; see (31)]. This is followed by a nighttime phase during which the infection can spread within households, household clusters, and neighborhoods. The pandemic can only spread between statistical areas during the daytime phase, as this is the largest geographical area of interaction in the nighttime phase. Further details of the transmission model are given in the Supplementary Materials.

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