Estimation of the incidence of the epidemic from numerical simulations

The numerical incidence of the epidemics, ρ, is calculated using discrete-time and synchronous Monte Carlo simulations. We made use of the quasistationary (QS) approach (44, 45) to avoid the effect that a large number of realizations end up in the absorbing state with no infected individuals in the system. Basically, the QS method focuses the simulation on active configurations, that is, with one or more infected individuals. Every time the system reaches the absorbing state, this state is replaced by one of the previously stored active states of the system. We kept 50 active configurations with an update probability of 0.20. We gave the systems a transient time of 105 time steps and then calculated ρ as an average over a relaxation time of 2 × 104 time steps.

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