Since the 1980s, aquaculture production has been increasing rapidly, making it a big contributor to seafood supply to the global market. Hence, projections of the economics of fisheries should ideally take this into account because a lower supply of wild-caught fish could well be filled by farmed fish. Here, we decided to limit the scope of our analysis to marine fisheries for a number of reasons. First, the current analysis is already massive and could lay the foundation for a more comprehensive follow-up analysis. Second, a combined analysis of the wild and farmed fish sectors under climate change is worthy of a separate study. Third, Lam et al. (6) undertook an analysis of different production scenarios, including supply from fish farms. The authors found that, under high CO2 emission levels (i.e., the Paris Agreement not implemented), global marine fisheries revenues could decrease by up to 15% with faster than the recent rate of aquaculture production and increase by up to 40% with slower than recent growth rates. Aquaculture growth was estimated at 4% in 2015, which is percentage points below the 6% mean growth estimated for the period 2001–2015 and well below the double digits recorded throughout the 1980s and 1990s (39). Hence, the latter scenario of slower aquaculture growth explored in (6) is more likely in the future, implying that our results may not be completely off even if aquaculture is taken into account.

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