Here, the daily semi-objective SC for the EM and two dynamical systems metrics (d and θ) were combined to evaluate the intrinsic predictability of EM synoptic systems in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and CMIP5 models. The daily dynamical systems properties were calculated from the time series of SLP over the EM region (fig. S1). Each day was also classified as one of five synoptic systems: RST, PT, High, CL, and SL. Accordingly, the CDFs of d and θ for each synoptic type could be calculated. The difference between the CDFs was tested with the Mann-Whitney RS (19) and KS (20, 21) tests at the 5% significance level. Last, the transition probability matrices (also known as Markov probability matrices) for the five synoptic systems were portrayed for both the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the CMIP5 models.

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