We used the CMIP5 1% per year CO2 experiment multimodel simulation ensemble (N = 35 realizations, M = 26 models; table S2). Each physics version of a model was considered a separate model. The simulations are all initialized using a preindustrial control simulation and are of varying length. The analysis was limited to the maximum length (140-year) time interval common to all but one simulation in the archive. We used a simple area-weighted average to create zonal means at a 5° interval.

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