We used the CMIP5 historical experiment (34) multimodel ensemble simulations, including both the anthropogenic + natural forced simulations (N = 164 realizations, M = 48 models) and anthropogenic-only forced simulations (N = 40 realizations, M = 10 models) spanning 1861–2005 (table S1). Each physics version of a model was considered a separate model. The analysis was limited to the common time period of overlap for all models and realizations (1861–2005). Those with a start year later than 1861 were not included in the analysis. We used a simple area-weighted average to create zonal means at a 5° interval (27).

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