While latitude is a commonly used metric of the types of environmental conditions experienced by a population (e.g. Sunday et al., 2014), we chose to evaluate multiple site level environmental temperature metrics as potential predictors of thermal tolerance and developmental traits because latitude may not be an accurate predictor of local scale temperatures experienced by organisms (Kuo and Sanford, 2009). Moreover, while latitude can be a useful predictor that is correlated with environmental conditions, habitat temperatures can differ at the same latitude based on ocean (Pacific vs. Atlantic) and local (inner estuary vs. outer estuary) conditions, and is thus another potential direct driver of environmentally adapted traits (Kuo and Sanford, 2009; Baumann and Conover, 2011; Sunday et al., 2011). Thus, we extracted a series of environmental temperature predictors with the goal of understanding what aspect of habitat temperature (e.g. mean vs. maximum temperature) best predicted patterns in thermal tolerance. From these temperature data, we calculated 5 environmental predictors: (i) mean annual temperature, (ii) summer mean temperature, (iii) upper 25th percentile of the summer period, (iv) the upper 10th percentile of the summer period and (v) the maximum summer temperature (Table S5). We used each environmental predictor by itself in each model to evaluate which predictor best explained trait performance patterns using model selection, including a null model. We selected site temperature data based on the completeness of the record in 2018, the proximity of the temperature data to the collection site (no more than 15 km; Table S1) and from locations representative of collection sites (e.g. environmental data was collected from buoys in tidal creeks if the collection site was in a tidal creek). When available, we selected only continuous 2018 temperature records, but the two data sources from the Pacific only had continuous data from 2015 (Table S1; Fig. 3). Summer was classified as between 1 June and 30 September.

SST from sources near broodstock collection sites, with each time series represents 1 year of data from 1 January to 31 December 2018 (except for Pacific sites, where data ranged from 1 January to 31 December 2015) for comparison of thermal regime across populations; lines represent the daily mean temperature at each site; sites are presented in order of annual mean temperature; see Table S1 for source list and sampling dates.

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